Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE

1
Hard Choices Ahead
Norfolk Agricultural Club 4th November 2003
Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy
Science Director Low Carbon Innovation
Centre School of Environmental Sciences
2
Future Global Warming Rates
3
Reasons for Concern
Range of predicted temperatures
Risks to Many
Large Increase
Net Negative for all marketsmost
Negative for most Regions
Higher Risk
oC
Some positive/ some negative Most people
adversely affected
Risks to Some
Negative for some Regions
Increase
Very Low Risk
I II III
IV V
I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems II Risks
from Extreme Climatic Events III Distribution of
Impacts IV Aggregate Impacts V Risks from Future
Large Scale Discontinuities
4
Local impacts

• Norfolk in that part of the UK which is likely to
  be most impacted.
• Re-distribution of rainfall lower summer
  rainfall.
• Maybe more flooding in winter
• Landscape/agriculture changes

Regionally/Globally

• More severe weather
• droughts floods crop failures etc.

5
Government Response

• Energy White Paper aspiration for 60 cut in
  CO2 emissions by 2050
• Will require unprecedented partnership activity
  in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s
  ( but no indication of how this will be
  undertaken)

There will be much more local generation, in
part from medium to small local/community power
plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from
locally generated waste, and from local wind
sources. These will feed local distributed
networks, which can sell excess capacity into the
grid. - Energy White Paper February 2003
6
The CRed ambition

• To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse
  community to debate, plan and execute a programme
  to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60 by 2025
• Can a local community take on the responsibility
  for starting to confront the challenge of climate
  change and make a difference?
• Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere
  else?
• Can we encourage politicians/officials to be
  bolder on our behalf?
• exemplar for the world

7
The CRed Community

• Participatory/inclusive
• Partnerships
• Modes of participation (targets/methods)
• Matrix of modes of participation representative
  of real-world complexity
• Spark imaginations
• Centred on Norwich/Norfolk, but links across the
  region, country, the world.

8
The Right Language
On average each person in UK causes the emission
of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks
like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year. 4 million
each year for Norfolk
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Some facts
A mobile phone charger left on even when not
charging up to 25 kg CO2 a year Standby on
television gt 60 kg per year Filling up with
petrol (30 for a full tank)
--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5 of one
balloon) How far does one have to drive in a
small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla)
emits as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour 1.6 miles
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How to use your to beat global warming
University aims to shame ministers into tougher
action Ian Sample, science correspondent -
Wednesday August 27, 2003A group of scientists
in East Anglia has launched an ambitious campaign
to tackle the threat of global warming in an
effort to shame ministers into stronger action on
climate change. The task they have set
themselves is formidable to slash the region's
emissions of carbon dioxide in half the time the
government believes is possible. At first
glance, the project, known as Cred, for carbon
reduction, might easily be dismissed as
well-meaning nonsense. But the team behind it,
Keith Tovey and his colleagues at the University
of East Anglia, belong to the most prestigious
environmental science department in the country.
"If anyone is going to do this, they will," said
Dennis Thouless whose Norwich-based company,
Global Commodities, collects used cooking oil
from local businesses and turns it into fuel.
The Cred project was set up in response to the
government's white paper on energy, published in
February. "The government pledged that they would
be pushing to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by
60 by the year 2050," Dr Tovey said. "It looked
impressive and sounded good, but didn't give any
clues on how to do it. To put it bluntly, there
were too many agendas being thrown around." The
result was a statement of high intention that
lacked any practical guidance. Growing
frustration at the government's dithering has
spurred Dr Tovey's team into action. They have
taken the government's stated target of 60
reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, which
according to the royal commission on
environmental pollution is vital to avoid the
adverse effects of climate change, and pledged
that East Anglia would meet it in half the time.
"If we can show that the people here can achieve
this target by 2025, we can turn around and say
to everybody else, 'What's your excuse?'" Dr
Tovey said. Enthusiasm for the project has
snowballed. Local businesses have submitted
themselves to scrutiny, to see how much
electricity they are wasting. School children
have had crash courses in saving energy. Night
classes have been set up to teach people the fine
art of making solar cells that, strapped to their
roofs, will give hot water. Others have gone one
step further and installed silicon-based panels
on their roofs that convert sunlight into
electricity. Dr Tovey is talking to the Diocese
of Norwich to try to get the Anglican church on
board. "East Anglia has more than 600 churches,"
he said. "Because churches are all built running
east to west, it means they've got a huge area of
roof that's facing south, so they're perfect for
catching the sun." "It would be very hard not to
agree with the aims of the Cred project," said
the Rev Jan MacFarlane, the Bishop of Norwich's
chaplain. "And if there's a possibility of
generating some income, why not?" But Dr Tovey
knows that slashing carbon dioxide in East Anglia
will have little impact on global climate change.
The people of East Anglia produce 6.5m tonnes of
carbon dioxide a year, against the 500m tonnes
produced by the UK as a whole. "To make a real
difference, the US will have to be doing this,
but that will happen when they realise there is
money to be made doing this." Word of the
project is spreading beyond East Anglia. The
Bishop of Hereford has expressed an interest. A
delegation from Japan which visited the Cred team
may set up a similar project. The biggest threat
to success now, the scientists believe, is that
people's enthusiasm dries up as the novelty wears
off. Dr Tovey said "There's always a chance we
will fail. But if we fail, it can't be said we
haven't tried."
Enthusiasm for the project has snowballed. Local
businesses have submitted themselves to scrutiny,
to see how much electricity they are wasting.
School children have had crash courses in saving
energy. Night classes have been set up to teach
people the fine art of making solar cells that,
strapped to their roofs, will give hot water.
Others have gone one step further and installed
silicon-based panels on their roofs that convert
sunlight into electricity. Dr Tovey is talking
to the Diocese of Norwich to try to get the
Anglican church on board. "East Anglia has more
than 600 churches," he said. "Because churches
are all built running east to west, it means
they've got a huge area of roof that's facing
south, so they're perfect for catching the sun."
"It would be very hard not to agree with the
aims of the Cred project," said the Rev Jan
MacFarlane, the Bishop of Norwich's chaplain.
"And if there's a possibility of generating some
income, why not?"
Cred
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Ida-Anglia näitab maailmale eeskuju
süsihappegaasierituse piiramisel 27/08/03
074956Arni Alandi Rühm Suurbritannia
Ida-Anglia teadlasi algatas suurejoonelise
kampaania tulemaks toime üleilmse
kliimasoojenemise ohuga ning häbistamaks
ministreid, kes kliimamuutuse ärahoidmiseks liiga
vähe ette on võtnud. Teadlased on endale
püstitanud aukartustäratava ülesande vähendada
piirkonna süsihappegaasi õhkupaiskamist poole
lühema aja jooksul valitsuse määratud graafikust.
Esmapilgul võib Credi nime kandev projekt
tunduda mittemidagiütleva mõttetusena.
Ühendkuningriigi teadlased usuvad, et nii see
siiski pole, sest projekti taga seisavad väga
väärikad ja tunnustatud teadlased. Ida-Anglia
ülikooli keskkonnateaduste õppetooli peetakse
parimaks omataoliseks kogu Suurbritannias.
Kateedrit juhivad Keith Tovey ja tema kolleegid.
Kui keegi nii julge lubaduse täitmisega
hakkama saab, siis just Tovey rühm on Dennis
Thouless, firma Global Commodities juht, kindel.
Thoulessi firma kogub kohalikelt ettevõtteilt
kasutatud toiduõli, et seda autokütuseks
töödelda. Cred loodi vastusena valitsuse
veebruaris välja antud valgele
energeetikapaberile. Dokumendis tõotab valitsus
vähendada süsihappegaasieritust 2050. aastaks 60
protsendi võrra. Tovey sõnul on valitsuse
valgele paberile kirja pandud üsna kenad mõtted
ja kogu dokument kõlab hästi. Paraku pole
kodanikele antud ühtki juhist, kuidas kirjapandud
kauneid mõtteid ellu viia. Et segadust veelgi
suurendada, on valge paberi sihtide
saavutamiseks üheaegselt käibel mitmeid
tegevuskavu. Tagajärjeks on väga suur tähelepanu
kasvuhoonegaasiemissioonide vähendamisele
samaaegselt igasuguste praktiliste juhiste
puudumisega.
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Effet de serre  East Anglia montre
lexemplelundi 15 septembre 2003, par collecte
CND R.E. Un groupe de scientifiques de
luniversité dEast Anglia, à lEst de
lAngleterre, a lancé une campagne pour accélérer
la réduction des émissions de dioxyde de carbone
de la région. Baptisée CRed (pour Carbon
Reduction Project), cette initiative ambitionne
daller deux fois plus vite que les prévisions
gouvernementales. Le projet a été lancé en
réaction au livre blanc sur lénergie publié en
février dans lequel le gouvernement sétait fixé
comme objectif une diminution de 60 des
émissions de ce polluant dici 2050. Les
responsables de CRed veulent y parvenir dès 2025.
Pour cela, Keith Tovey et ses collègues ont
réussi à mobiliser entreprises locales et
particuliers pour faire des économies dénergie
et installer des panneaux photovoltaïques sur les
toits. La prochaine étape consiste à rallier
lEglise anglicane à leur cause. Exposées plein
sud, les églises ont en effet de larges toitures
qui peuvent capter lénergie du soleil. Or, la
région dEast Anglia compte plus de 600
chapelles. Si les scientifiques sont conscients
du peu dimpact sur le changement climatique de
leur action, ils comptent cependant provoquer
dautres initiatives. Une délégation japonaise
est déjà intéressée par le projet. En France,
la commune de Chalon-sur-Saône a déjà mis en
place une action similaire pour réaliser en trois
ans lengagement de réduction des émissions de
gaz à effet de serre pris par lEurope sur dix
ans. Pour lire notre article sur linitiative de
Chalon-sur-Saône.
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ecologia e ambiente SULLEFFETTO SERRA LEAST
ANGLIA DA LESEMPIO dalla redazione di
Bruxelles Bruxelles, 15 settembre - Un gruppo di
scienziati delluniversità di East Anglia
(Inghilterra) ha lanciato una campagna per
accelerare la riduzione delle emissioni di
anidride carbonica della regione. Battezzato CRed
(Carbon Reduction Project), liniziativa ha
lambizione di andare due volte più veloce delle
previsioni governative. Il progetto
(http//www.cred-uk.org/index.aspx) è stato
lanciato il reazione al Libro Bianco sullenergia
pubblicato in febbraio nel quale il governo
britannico aveva fissato come obiettivo una
diminuzione del 60 delle emissioni di CO2 entro
il 2025. Per riuscire nellimpresa, Keith Tovey
e i suoi colleghi sono riusciti a mobilitare le
aziende locali e i cittadini per avviare
programmi di efficienza e risparmio energetico e
installare pannelli fotovoltaici. La prossima
tappa consiste nel convincere la Chiesa anglicana
a dar loro il suo sostegno. Esposte in pieno sud,
le chiese hanno infatti grandi tetti che sono
ideali per installare impianti che captano
energia solare, e nella regione di East Anglia ci
sono più di 600 tra chiese e cappelle. Benché gli
scienziati siano coscienti dello scarso impatto
della loro iniziativa sul cambiamento climatico,
contano tuttavia di promuovere altre iniziative.
Una delegazione giapponese si è già interessata
al progetto. Indice ecologia e ambiente
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How do we know the CRed community represents our
region?
Liftshare
Suffolk C. Council
Whitby Bird
Global Commodities
Strattons
Powergen
Deepdale Farm
Diocese of Norwich
SLP Energy
Broadland DC
Woodys
Norwich Union
Banham Poultry
Eastern Heatpumps
Camelot Craft
EEDA
NEWS
Kingswood School
Norwich 21
RNPS
Norwich Colour Print
Norwich City Council
Farmers link
Norfolk C.Council
LEA
May Gurney
The Broads Auth.
SERCO
Sth Norfolk D. C.
The RSPB
BPS
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Alpha Schools
R.Bilbie
AEEAC
Amicus
SUSTRANS
Jarvis
LSI
SMS
EDP
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There will be much more local generation, in
part from medium to small local/community power
plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from
locally generated waste, and from local wind
sources. These will feed local distributed
networks, which can sell excess capacity into the
grid.

• Options for East Anglia up to 2020
• Wind Energy
• Solar Energy
• Biomass / Biofuels
• Bioethanol, Biodiesel, Electricity Generation

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Wind Energy

• Each Wind Turbine the size of Swaffham will
  supply electricity for about
• 1000 homes.
• Each turbine will save around 1700 tonnes of
  carbon dioxide
• We would need to persuade 12000 motorists to
  each drive 500 miles
• less per year to get the same saving
• Economics of Wind Energy makes it the most
  attractive renewable option.

New Approach Community Initiative
promoted by the community for the
community
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Early Wind Power Devices

• C 700 AD in Persia
• used for grinding corn
• pumping water
• evidence suggests that dry valleys were Dammed
  to harvest wind

20
Traditional Windmills
Traditional English Windmill
Spanish Windmills Note 7 in a cluster of 11
American Homestead Windmill for pumping water
21
Vertical Axis Machines
22
Other Wind Machines
Savonius Rotors - good for pumping water - 3rd
World applications
23
Wind Energy in Europe
Overall EU target of 12 of energy (22
electricity) from renewables by 2010 - UK 10
Currently 13,000 MW from wind energy
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Wind Map of Western Europe wind resource at
50m above surface
Sheltered Open
Coast Open sea Hills

Dr J. Palutikof
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Key Environmental Issues - some of main issues
against

• Distraction to drivers
• Danger to birds
• Radio/Television/Radar Interference
• Noise - mechanical, aerodynamic, ..infra-sound?
• Flickering
• - only relevant within buildings and then only in
  a precise orientation at selected times of the
  year.
• Danger of ice throw
• - not really a problem as other constraints will
  mean that a sufficient exclusion zone is present
  anyway
• Blade failure
• Aesthetics -

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Ice can form
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How many blades?
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Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by
some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a
unique landmark and see it as an asset to the
town. Most of the local population are proud of
the turbine and it seems to have had a positive
impact on the town in a number of ways.
I do believe that were it not for the number of
visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine
for whatever reason, we would not have such a
high influx of buyers from out of the area. This
has increased house prices, and the prosperity of
the area.
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Solar Energy in UK

• Less affected by latitude than cloud cover
• In UK an average (day/night) of 115 W m-2 is
  being received
• On a dull day in excess of 20 W m-2 can still be
  falling on surfaces.

Applications in UK

• Solar Thermal Hot Water Heaters can provide all
  hot water needs for a house in summer and around
  50 over year.
• Solar Photo Voltaic cells generate electricity
  which can be uwsed to reduce electricity
  consumption in a house and at times can be sold
  to the grid.

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Solar Thermal Hot Water Heaters

• Individual Units are costly and at present NOT
  cost effective.
• Do not benefit from mass production
• Most cost effective when electricity is method of
  heating.
• The Broadland/ CRED scheme is aiming to get cost
  down to under 2000 per installed unit. This is
  achieved by bulk purchase for the benefit of a
  community. This approach will help to promote
  such schemes and also help to bring cost down.
• Building Regulations should make fitting of such
  collectors mandatory for all individual housing
  units

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Solar Photo Voltaics Some Facts

• Photo Voltaic Cells are becoming progressively
  cheaper
• Efficiencies of collectors are improving
• Grants of up to 70 of capital cost are available
• Photo voltaic cells can be manufactured in a
  variety of forms - even made to look like tiles -
  or made in the form which can be rolled out for
  easy installation.
• They can be easily connected to the Grid and sell
  surplus electricity while allowing import when no
  solar energy is available.

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Two Examples of photovoltaics
34 kW Peak array
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Bishop of Hereford has picked up idea of PV on
Church Roofs
The Times Weather Eye September 22, 2003 -
Paul Simons THE Right Rev John Oliver, the
Bishop of Hereford, is promoting a novel idea to
help to cut the UKs carbon dioxide emissions
he would like to use church roofs for solar
panels in order to generate electricity.
Most churches were built with roofs with a
north-south aspect, which is ideal for catching
sunlight, he explains. Aesthetic considerations
are helped by photovoltaic solar cells that can
be made to look like roof slates.
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How might such a PV project be funded?

• They are currently expensive, but are about to
  improve in efficiency and come down in price.
• There are grants available 50 towards cost.
• For community buildings, there is the
  possibility to tap funds now available from the
  Landfill Tax.
• On average, 1 sq m will provide about 100 kWh of
  electricity each year, and will save 43 kg of CO2.

Innovative financing needs to be explored

• Net Electricity use
• Sell all electricity to obtain Renewable
  Obligation Certificates (ROCs)

35
Biomass Possibilities

• Biomass for electricity Generation
• Biodiesel

• Direct Combustion with or without CHP
• Pyrolisis / Gasification

• Can be used in 100 pure form in all diesels
  built in last 5 years.
• Needs careful conversion if mineral diesel has
  been used previously
• Derived from recycled vegetable oils / oil
  seed rape etc.
• Much reduced particulates
• Global Commodities in Norfolk already produce
  bio-diesel.
• Woodys use vehicles powered exclusively by
  biodiesel.

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Biomass Possibilities - continued

• Bioethanol
• East Anglia and Farming Community well placed
• But economics are not right to make this
  attractive
• ? Reduce fuel duty on bioethanol (like biodiesel)
• 4 million tonne ? Surplus of wheat could be used
  for fuel
• EU requirement gt 5 incorporation of biofuels
  by 2010

• Can be used as 10 15 blend with petrol.
• Derived from sugar, wheat, woody wastes
• If a bioethanol facility and associated
  infra-structure exists then
• possibilitiy of producing bioethanol from
  domestic waste is a possibility.

37
We have difficult choices to make
38
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Non-Renewable Methods
39
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
GOVERNMENT EFFORTS to quadruple power generated
from offshore wind farms by 2010 will fail
because it is assuming unproven technology will
deliver higher capacity turbines, contractors
warned this week.
There have been many proposals in past (e.g. off
Wells, 1988), but only Blyth has been completed,
and only one other is under construction.
Offshore wind looses up to 8 of electricty
compared to onshore.
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Our Choices They are difficult

• Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e
  onshore/offshore wind and biomass.
• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy on this and the
  other attendant risks?

• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise
  significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration
  within 10 years which is unlikely

If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave
things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and
electricity generation? gtgtgtgtgtgt
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Our Choices They are difficult
If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent
on around 70 of our heating and electricity from
GAS which will have to be imported from countries
like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are
we happy with this prospect? gtgtgtgtgtgt
If not We need even more substantial cuts in
energy use which could affect both industry and
our ability to heat an light our homes in the
future. Unless we are prepared to sacrifice our
future to effects of Global Warming
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on
renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making
will lead us down the GAS option route and all
the attendant Security issues that raises.
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Our Choices They are difficult
A diverse supply of renewables across the
country will provide security it is rare for the
wind not to be blowing anywhere except on sunny
days when solar energy output is at a peak
BUT Arent Renewables unreliable? we need
secure supply
A diverse renewable supply will be local, and
will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as
those recently in US, London, Italy,
Denmark. Conventional generation is based on
large units 500 660 MW enough to supply over
1 million homes. These do fail from time to
time, and require much greater backup than
required for the failure of a few wind
turbines. Renewable generation is less prone to
major interruption
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Our Choices They are difficult

• A sustainable future requires
• Provision of technical means to improve
  efficiency
• Education to make people aware that their
  actions matter
• A diverse supply of renewable energy
• Wind - Biomass gt Solar gt tidal gt wave
• These actions will lead to a greater security of
  energy supply

What is CRed doing? Some Examples

• Solar Thermal Hot Water Heaters (with Broadland
  District Council)
• Examining Photovoltaic possibilities
• Wind Energy on UEA Campus
• Star in the East Project
• Database of Good Practice
• Making links/partnerships
• Lobbying Parliament (e.g. over Biofuels)

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WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/
This Presentation may be viewed on the WEB
at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm