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New directions in research, new findings and
continuing key concerns issues on climate change
and water resources Max Campos Regional Committe
on Hydraulic Resources-Central America
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Water resources and climate change
Interdisciplinary analyses Lack of information
about some parts of hydrological
cycle Hydrological views of climate (design
purposes)
Environmental social
Biophysical impacts (man)
Hydrological cycle
Impacts cycle for water studies
Policy makers
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..... require an interdisciplinary approach
comprehensive studies of climate and water
issues have omitted the social scientists,
producing results that are difficult for
decision makers to use. .......particularly in
the world of policy development, are the views of
hydrologists about climate and its change. Most
hydrologic studies of extreme events such as
floods and droughts have assumed stationarity of
climate over time
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.......the importance of including climatic
variability in water resources management), for
example moderate fluctuations in climate may
produce major hydrologic changes, and in one case
noted that a 25 increase in precipitation in a
basin increased the mean annual runoff by
50-70. .......policy-makers addressing the
impacts of climate change on water resources
typically are most aware of views of
hydrologists . This can result in confusion and
loss of credibility about the issues, and
inaction at the policy making levels.
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Middle 80s. emphasis research . the effects on
precipitation of CO2 induced global warming. .
how climate changes might alter extreme events
(droughts and floods). . the relationship of
climate alterations and water quality. .
development of methods to better ascertain
climate, water, and society.
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Allee, David J., Leonard B. Dworsky, and Albert
E. Utton (1993). Managing Transboundary Water
Conflicts The United States and its Boundary
Commissions. AWRA 28th Annual Conference
Symposium, Reno, NV, AWRA. US-Mexico border,
Canada. water supply, legal/policy/political
issues.
Allen, L.H., P. Jones, and J.W. Jones (1985).
Rising Atmospheric CO2 and Evapotranspiration.
St. Joseph, MI, American Society of Agricultural
Engineers 13-27. US. CO2 levels,
evapotranspiration, agriculture.
Anderson, Jeffry L., S. Shiau, and Danny Harvey
(1991). Preliminary Investigation of
Trend/Patterns in Surface Water Characteristics
and Climate Variations. NHRI Workshop, Saskatoon,
Canada, National Hydrology Research Institute.
unspecified/NA. hydrology/groundwater/river flows.
Assel, Raymond A. (1988). Impact of Global
Warming on Great Lakes Ice Cycles. The Potential
Effects of Global Climate Change on the United
States. J. B. Smith, and Dennis A. Tirpak.
Washington, DC, U.S. EPA. EPA-230-05-89-051
5.1-5.30. Eastern US, Great Lakes. lake level
fluctuation/ice cover.
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POLICY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
W ho are the policy makers in water resources?
A variety of levels -local -states and
provinces -national level -international level.
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POLICY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Needs for Information related to climate change
by policy makers More frequently asked
questions being asked by policy makers 1- what
type of climate change is apt to occur? -Will
the variability of weather increase? -Will the
mean or modal values of temperature,
precipitation or other critical variables
change? -What conditions will be altered and by
how much? - Will there be more extremes with the
normals not changing?  
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POLICY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
2- Are the changes beyond the stationarity
assumptions that hydrologists typically consider
in their current designs? -Can we prove or
reasonably establish that the changes which may
occur in the climate are greater than what has
been assumed out of study of the historical
records?   3- Can the presumed future changes be
predicted (beginning, continuance and/or
end? -What is the certainty of the
situation? -What are the confidence bands and
the probabilities for that the climate
change will occur? -Credibility of the
information from the scientific
community divergence of opinion between the
scientific community leads to inaction by the
policy makers.
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POLICY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
4- How serious will the change be?      -Who
is affected, the cost, the social disruptions and
an environmental impact -         what
is affected -         -what is the time
reaction of the effect?   5- What are the
potential solutions? Scientists should not
present problems unless they also help us with
their solutions. It implies information on
potential adjustments
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El fenómeno de El Niño produce una reducción
importante en la lluvia del Pacífico
Centroamericano la cual puede ocasionar
condiciones de sequía en algunos sitios
específicos. A pesar de esto, El Niño solamente
explica un porcentage de los eventos secos del
Istmo.
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Resultados del Ier Foro Climático Junio-2001,
Tegucigalpa, Honduras, NOAA-OGP, CRRH/SICA
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2010
lt1500
lt1500
2000-1500
CHANGES IN YEARLY RAINFALL
2100
Rainfall in mm
lt800
lt800
1500-800
Results from Costa Rica The Netherlands Climate
change project Minister for Environment and
Energy (MINAE) National Meteorological Institute
(IMN)
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CHANGES IN MEAN TEMPERATURE COSTA RICA
Actual mean temperature Nat. Met. Institute-CR.
Actual mean temperature Nat. Met. Institute-CR.
Results from Costa Rica The Netherlands Climate
change project Minister for Environment and
Energy (MINAE) National Meteorological Institute
(IMN)
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Rainfall (mm)-average 1971-90 (INETER 2000)
CHANGES IN RAINFALL NICARAGUA
Rainfall (mm) year 2100 HADCM2 model and IS92-a
Scenario (MARENA 2000)
Important reductions in precipitation are
expected along the Pacific region of Nicaragua
under IS-92-a 2010 -8.4 2030..
-14.5 2050.. -21.0 2070..
-27.3 2100.. -36.6
INETER Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios
Territoriales MARENA Ministerio del Ambiente y
Recursos Naturales
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OBJETIVO Comprender la respuesta hidrológica de
las principales cuencas hidrográficas a
diferentes escenarios de cambio climático.
Criterio de selección alto potencial de de
generación hidroeléctrico, importantes fuentes de
abastecimiento de agua para comunidades urbanas y
rurales
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METODOLOGIA (Programa de los Estados Unidos para
el Cambio Climático (US-CSP) y Expertos en
hidrología y meteorología Centroamericanos
(PCCC)) Utilización del modelo CLIRUM 3
(precipitación-escorrentía) para simular las
variaciones en la escorrentía generada por
precipitaciones derivadas de varios escenarios
climáticos. Fases Manejo de información
hidro-meteorológica básica. Calibración y
validación del modelo CLIRUM 3 (balance
hídrico). Estimación general de la vulnerabilidad
de las cuencas seleccionadas ante cambios de
precipitación y temperatura (estimación de la
sensibilidad). Información básica Ecurrimiento
superficial, temperatura, precipitación y
evapotranspiración potencial.
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PANAMA
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• 120 cuencas principales-23 cuencas
  transfronterizas 10.7 mundo
• 40 del territorio regional 191.500 km2 gt
  cualquier país región
• Capitales en cuencas transfronterizas
• Managua-Cuenca río San Juan-Nicaragua
• Tegucigalpa-Cuenca río Choluteca-Honduras
• San Salvador Cuenca río Lempa-El Salvador

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Magnitud of the impact of hurricane Mitch

• 3.5 million were
• affected.

• 53 were children under 5.
• The most affected sector of population was the
  poorest.

• Total amount of damages
• US 6,018 M.

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Effects on regional GNP -2.5
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Central America before Mitch

• After the lost decade of the 80s,
• Central American countries were
• making important progress in
• Consolidation of democracy.
• Strengthening the integration process.
• Organizing their economies.
• Intensification of the intra regional commerce.
• More efficient insertion in the international
  economy.