Presentaci

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The 21st Century climate challenge

• Rising CO2 emissions are pushing up stocks
  increasing temperatures
• In the past 100 years the earth has warmed 0.70C
• Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are increasing
  at 1.9 ppm each year. It reached 379 ppm in 2005
• Between 2000 and 2005 an average of 26 Gt of CO2
  was released into the atmosphere each year

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Tackling Climate Change Global carbon accounting

• Defining dangerous keeping within 2oC increase
  from the start of the industrial era (1861-1890)
• Establishing a 21st Century carbon budget at
  1,456 Gt CO2
• Defining a sustainable emissions pathway
• The problem of inertia the case for adaptation

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Risk, Vulnerability and Climate Change

• Climate risk is a fact for the entire world
• Vulnerability is a measure of capacity to manage
  climate hazards without suffering a long-term
  potentially irreversible loss of well-being
• The state of human development shapes the process
  by which risk is converted into vulnerability

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Human Rights and the environment are
interdependent and interrelatedMary Robinson

• Five human development tipping points
• Reduced agricultural productivity
• Collapse of ecosystems
• Heightened water insecurity glacial melting
• Increased health risks
• Increased exposure to extreme weather events
  tropical storms, coastal flooding, sea level rise

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Disaster risk is skewed towards developing
countries

• 1 in 19 people are affected in developing
  countries
• The corresponding number is 1 in 1,500 in OECD
  countries
• A risk differential of 79

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The human development backdrop

• The backdrop includes some good news
• The share of the population living on less than
  US 1 a day has fallen from 29 percent in 1990 to
  18 percent in 2004
• Extreme poverty fell by 135 million between 1999
  and 2005
• During the period 1990 to 2004, child mortality
  rates have fallen from 106 deaths per 1,000 live
  births to 83
• Life expectancy for developing countries has
  increased from 56 (1970-75) to 65 (2000-05)

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Other news are not as good

• Poverty, child mortality and malnutrition
• There are still around 1 billion people living on
  less than a dollar a day. The 1st MDG could be
  missed by around 380 million people
• Around 28 percent of children in LDCs are
  underweight or stunted.
• Only 32 countries (of 147) are on track to
  achieve the MDG on child mortality
• Inequality
• More than 80 percent of the worlds population
  lives in countries where income differentials are
  widening
• Underlying inequalities act as a barrier for
  early recovery after shocks

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Forces unleashed by global warming could stall
and then reverse progress built up over
generations

• Among the threats to human development identified
  by Fighting climate change
• Additional 600 million people facing malnutrition
• Productivity losses of 26 percent by 2060 in
  semi-arid areas of sub-Saharan Africa causing
  revenue losses in excess to the total bilateral
  aid to the region in 2005
• 1.8 billion people facing water stress
• Displacement of up to 332 million people in
  coastal and low-lying areas
• Additional 400 million people facing the risk of
  malaria

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How do people cope with shocks?

• Dietary adjustments
• Substituted meat for vegetables
• Eat smaller portions
• Reduced number of meals per day
• Reducing expenditures
• Generating cash for food
• Depleting savings
• Borrowing money
• Selling livestock or poultry
• Selling house or household items
• Sending children to look for money
• Migrating?
• All these options may not be available to
  households in all contexts
• When adopted in situations of distress may not be
  conducive to enhancing human development

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Low human development traps

• The potential human costs of climate change have
  been understated
• In Ethiopia, children exposed to a drought in
  early childhood are 36 percent more likely to be
  malnourished five years later a figure that
  translates into 2 million additional cases of
  child malnutrition
• Indian women born during a drought or a flood in
  the 1970s were 19 percent less likely to ever
  attend primary school
• Climate related risks force people into downward
  spirals of disadvantage that undermine future
  opportunities

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Adapting to the inevitable national action and
international cooperation
If you are neutral in a situation of injustice,
you have chosen the side of the
oppressor. Archbishop Desmond Tutu
An injustice committed against anyone is a
threat to everyone. Montesquieu
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Towards adaptation apartheid?Developed country
investments dwarf adaptation funds

• By mid-2007, actual multilateral financing
  delivered through UNFCCC funds US reached 26
  million
• This is equivalent to one week spending in floods
  defences in the UK
• Amounts are not the only problem. Timing and
  fulfillment of pledges present further
  limitations

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The adaptation challenge

• Exposure to the risk of climate disasters is
  expected to rise
• Expansion of unplanned human settlements,
• Environmental degradation and
• Marginalization of rural populations
• Adaptation needs to be brought to the top of the
  agenda for poverty reduction
• Risks and vulnerabilities need to be included in
  national planning and integrated into the
  framework of poverty reduction strategies
• Climate change is likely to exacerbate
  competition for already scarce productive
  resource water, land.
• Adaptation needs to prevent further
  marginalization and protect the rights of those
  not fully integrated into the market economy and
  the circuit of international exchanges

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The Human Development Report underscores that

• The world has less than a decade to avoid
  dangerous climate change that could bring
  unprecedented human development reversals
• Climate change erodes human potential, freedoms
  and human rights
• Climate change is a threat to humanity as a
  whole. But it is the poor and future generations,
  constituencies with no responsibility for the
  ecological debt we are running up, who face the
  most immediate and most severe human costs
• The Human Development Report 2007/2008 calls for
  a twin track approach that combines stringent
  mitigation to limit 21st Century warming to less
  than 2 degree centigrade, with strengthened
  international cooperation on adaptation
• Winning the battle against climate change will
  require far-reaching changes in the way we think
  about ecological interdependence, about social
  justice and the human rights and entitlements of
  the poor and future generations

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The HDR 2007/2008 is available at
http//hdr.undp.org
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Charting a course away dangerous climate change

• The sustainable emissions pathway is as follows
• The world cuts of 50 percent by 2050
• Developed countries cuts of 80 percent by 2050
• Developing countries cuts of 20 percent by 2050
• with respect to 1990