Presentaci

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CUBAN MITIGATION EXPERIENCES
DR. JUAN LLANES-REGUEIRO, HAVANA UNIVERSITY,
COORDINATOR CUBAN COUNTRY MITIGATION TEAM
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THE TEAM
DR. JUAN LLANES-REGUEIRO Economist, LA 4AR WG
III, RA 4AR, WGII, IPCC DR. ADRIANO GRACIA,
Economist, National Institute for Economic
Research (NIER), Macro Scenarios DR. JOSE SOMOZA,
Nuclear Engineer, Specialist on Statistics,
Economist, (NIER), Macro models DR. JUAN F.
ZUÑIGA Electric Engineer, Specialist for System
Analysis and Modelling. Lic. JULIO TORRES, Energy
Analist, Researcher at the National Observatory
for Science and Technology
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MAIN TASK

• EXPLORE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ISSUES
• EXPLORE POSSIBLE FUTURE CONSTRAINTS FOR
  SOCIOECOMOMIC DEVELOPMENT
• TURN CONSTRAINTS INTO OPPORTTUNITIES
• DEVELOP ACCURATE TOOLS FOR MITIGATION ASSESSMENT

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SOCIOECONOMIC NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
GHG INVENTORY
MACRO SCENARIOS
SECTORAL SCENARIOS
BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS
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LINKS MACRO SCENARIOS- INVENTORY
Emissions inventory Medium term sce. Long
term sce.
Source categories 52
31
16
Emission indicators 453
107
38
Why? Integration of results from national
inventories on HGH emissions with scenarios
allowed to increase rigor and precision and the
identification of new potential trends that
should attain importance in the future permit
feedback
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• Macro Scenarios 2005- 2030 (storylines and
  quantitative assessment)
• Oil intensive, high economic development
• Oil intensive, low economic development
• Non fossil-fuels intensive
• Baseline
• Balanced energy supply
• Main outcomes
• Emission intensity of GDP, selected sectors and
  activities for each scenario, percapita
  emissions.
• Elasticity of growth to GDP for selected sectors
  and activities
• Emissions factors for several sectors that where
  included into each scenario, (electricity,
  transportation, oil, mining, etc.)
• Policy ideas for mitigation programs and
  strategies
• CDM policies
• TOOLS ENPEP, LEAP, DECADES, MAED, PRODOM O.O,
  and
• NAIADE, (multicriteria based on set of criteria
  and information affected by different types and
  degrees of uncertainty )

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• Bottom-up assessment Three steps
• Design of a software for bottom-up mitigation
  options and CDM.
• Module for calculation of emissions factors
• Link the software with co-benefits (savings in
  investment, benefits from change in environmental
  quality, co-benefits of afforestation, etc.)