Seminrio internacional - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 22
About This Presentation
Title:

Seminrio internacional

Description:

Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 CEP: 21945-970 Rio de Janeiro RJ ... avoid the perpetuation of the current gases emissions levels and consequently ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:48
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 23
Provided by: IVIG
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Seminrio internacional


1
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • Seminário internacional
  • Equidade no período pós -Quioto
  • PAINEL II
  • Luiz Pinguelli Rosa - FBMC
  • Local-FGV / SP
  • Data-26 julho 2005

2
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • This presentation is based on a paper in press by
    the Journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy
    Reviews.
  • The objective is to discuss the differences among
    the meaning of the GHG historical emissions in
    terms of development patterns.
  • It suggests that different weights for different
    sectors should be taken into account.

3
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • For example, GHG emissions due to enteric
    fermentation from domestic livestock, are linked
    to different regional activities such as food
    production, cultural expression or even religion
    meaning, depending on the region analyzed.
  • These differences should be considered.

4
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • Emissions due to fossil fuel sector represent in
    the majority a not feasible consumption pattern
    in terms of sustainable development.

5
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
6
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
7
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
8
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity.
9
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • Historical emissions accountability is important
  • to not ignore the physical laws that give rise to
    the environmental problem of global warming,
  • to not give a retrospective licence to past
    emitters and,
  • to not privilege those who lived in the past with
    the opportunity to benefit from emissions.

10
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • Responsibility presumes
  • intent
  • knowledge about the harmful consequences of ones
    behaviour.
  • In the context of international diplomacy, an
    actor may be considered 'responsible'
  • without (proof of) malicious intent,
  • but not if he could not have known on the basis
    of the state of (scientific) knowledge at the
    time - that his behaviour was causing
    (substantial) damage

11
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • The relative contribution of emissions of CO2,
    between 1750 and 1900 to the total increased
    global average surface temperature in 2000 due to
    increased concentrations of CO2 is 3.5 only from
    fossil fuels and 10.3 from fossil plus forestry.
    (Hohne and Blok, 2002)
  • But the relative contribution of UK fossil fuel
    CO2 emissions, between 1750 and 1900 to the UK
    increased global average surface temperature in
    1990 is about 20, and Germany is about 17.
    These values are significant for the burden
    sharing according to the historical
    responsibilities.
  • The relative contribution of CO2 emissions due to
    fossil fuel, between 1750 and 1900 in 1990 (ten
    years before Hohne data) due to increased
    concentrations of CO2 is 3.8 but 35.6 from
    fossil fuels plus land use change (IVIGs
    historical emissions inventory).

12
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • Several uncertainties involve the climate system
    science
  • It is necessary to acquire more confidence in the
    data and to go further in the researches to adopt
    a methodology and to discard others.
  • Example of how one uncertainty can affect the
    results about responsibilities is "the additional
    radiative forcing due to additional
    concentrations of CO2 (TAR-IPCC, 2001)-
  • At 300 ppmv CO2 concentration, an additional ppmv
    causes 0.018 W/m2 radiative forcing, while at
    twice the concentration,
  • At 600 ppmv, the effect of an additional ppmv is
    only 0.009 W/m2, which is half of the effect."
  • It means that "early emissions" result in a
    bigger effect than "late emissions, increasing
    the 1750-1900 contribution to the present.

13
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • Criteria used for some Equity Principles
    (Ringius, Torvanger and Underdal, 2002)
  • "responsibility",
  • "need",
  • "capacity".
  • Operational requirements
  • "universal applicability",
  • "easy to make operational',
  • "simplicity",
  • "allows to future refinements",
  • "allows for flexibility" and
  • "allows for country-specific circumstances".
  • Brazilian Proposal was considered the best in
    terms of Fairness but the most weak in terms of
    operational requirements.

14
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • The notion of the responsibility of all in
    global climate change issues can result in
    maintaining the same level of consumption as
    everything depends on everything else,
    producing the idea that nothing can be done, and
    that the best solution is the fastest.
  • Consequently, instead of encouraging effective
    responsibility among people, palliative solutions
    appear.
  • Economic benefits are generated for some groups,
    with no commitment to structural changes in
    society, favouring very short-term market
    solutions (Muylaert, Cohen, Rosa and Pereira,
    2002).

15
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • On the topic of global climate and the respective
    international talks, the idea of responsibility
    is fundamental in order to deal with the vast
    past and present development gaps among the
    developed and developing countries and to avoid
    the perpetuation of the current gases emissions
    levels and consequently the continuation of
    current lifestyles.

16
IVIGs database structure
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
17
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • 1700, 1750, 1800, 1850, 1900, 1950, 1970, 1990

18
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • Our study proposes to differentiate the meaning
    of the different gases along the historical
    emissions and according to the sectors.
  • For that, it could be given different weights to
    the GHGs depending on their sources of emissions.

19
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • Although a tCeq is not different for the global
    warming, it can be associated to different
    consumptions patterns. (Anil Aggarwall ,1991)

20
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • For example, CH4 emissions from domestic
    livestock should be less weighted than N2O
    emissions from industrial processes and also less
    weighted than CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.

21
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • Land use change emissions should be expressed by
    the areas of the countries taking into account
    the emissions per ha or per square km. This would
    prevent the analysis that compare emissions from
    land use changes of small countries like Portugal
    and Belgium to emissions of big countries like
    Canada and Brazil.

22
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
  • Thank you!
  • www.ivig.coppe.ufrj.br
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com