Title: Seminrio internacional
1GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- Seminário internacional
- Equidade no período pós -Quioto
- PAINEL II
- Luiz Pinguelli Rosa - FBMC
- Local-FGV / SP
- Data-26 julho 2005
2GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- This presentation is based on a paper in press by
the Journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Reviews. - The objective is to discuss the differences among
the meaning of the GHG historical emissions in
terms of development patterns. - It suggests that different weights for different
sectors should be taken into account.
3GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- For example, GHG emissions due to enteric
fermentation from domestic livestock, are linked
to different regional activities such as food
production, cultural expression or even religion
meaning, depending on the region analyzed. - These differences should be considered.
4GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- Emissions due to fossil fuel sector represent in
the majority a not feasible consumption pattern
in terms of sustainable development.
5GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
6GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
7GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
8GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity.
9GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- Historical emissions accountability is important
- to not ignore the physical laws that give rise to
the environmental problem of global warming, - to not give a retrospective licence to past
emitters and, - to not privilege those who lived in the past with
the opportunity to benefit from emissions.
10GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- Responsibility presumes
- intent
- knowledge about the harmful consequences of ones
behaviour. - In the context of international diplomacy, an
actor may be considered 'responsible' - without (proof of) malicious intent,
- but not if he could not have known on the basis
of the state of (scientific) knowledge at the
time - that his behaviour was causing
(substantial) damage
11GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- The relative contribution of emissions of CO2,
between 1750 and 1900 to the total increased
global average surface temperature in 2000 due to
increased concentrations of CO2 is 3.5 only from
fossil fuels and 10.3 from fossil plus forestry.
(Hohne and Blok, 2002) - But the relative contribution of UK fossil fuel
CO2 emissions, between 1750 and 1900 to the UK
increased global average surface temperature in
1990 is about 20, and Germany is about 17.
These values are significant for the burden
sharing according to the historical
responsibilities. - The relative contribution of CO2 emissions due to
fossil fuel, between 1750 and 1900 in 1990 (ten
years before Hohne data) due to increased
concentrations of CO2 is 3.8 but 35.6 from
fossil fuels plus land use change (IVIGs
historical emissions inventory).
12GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- Several uncertainties involve the climate system
science - It is necessary to acquire more confidence in the
data and to go further in the researches to adopt
a methodology and to discard others. - Example of how one uncertainty can affect the
results about responsibilities is "the additional
radiative forcing due to additional
concentrations of CO2 (TAR-IPCC, 2001)- - At 300 ppmv CO2 concentration, an additional ppmv
causes 0.018 W/m2 radiative forcing, while at
twice the concentration, - At 600 ppmv, the effect of an additional ppmv is
only 0.009 W/m2, which is half of the effect." - It means that "early emissions" result in a
bigger effect than "late emissions, increasing
the 1750-1900 contribution to the present.
13GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- Criteria used for some Equity Principles
(Ringius, Torvanger and Underdal, 2002) - "responsibility",
- "need",
- "capacity".
- Operational requirements
- "universal applicability",
- "easy to make operational',
- "simplicity",
- "allows to future refinements",
- "allows for flexibility" and
- "allows for country-specific circumstances".
- Brazilian Proposal was considered the best in
terms of Fairness but the most weak in terms of
operational requirements.
14GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- The notion of the responsibility of all in
global climate change issues can result in
maintaining the same level of consumption as
everything depends on everything else,
producing the idea that nothing can be done, and
that the best solution is the fastest. - Consequently, instead of encouraging effective
responsibility among people, palliative solutions
appear. - Economic benefits are generated for some groups,
with no commitment to structural changes in
society, favouring very short-term market
solutions (Muylaert, Cohen, Rosa and Pereira,
2002).
15GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- On the topic of global climate and the respective
international talks, the idea of responsibility
is fundamental in order to deal with the vast
past and present development gaps among the
developed and developing countries and to avoid
the perpetuation of the current gases emissions
levels and consequently the continuation of
current lifestyles.
16IVIGs database structure
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
17GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- 1700, 1750, 1800, 1850, 1900, 1950, 1970, 1990
18GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- Our study proposes to differentiate the meaning
of the different gases along the historical
emissions and according to the sectors. - For that, it could be given different weights to
the GHGs depending on their sources of emissions.
19GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- Although a tCeq is not different for the global
warming, it can be associated to different
consumptions patterns. (Anil Aggarwall ,1991)
20GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- For example, CH4 emissions from domestic
livestock should be less weighted than N2O
emissions from industrial processes and also less
weighted than CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.
21GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- Land use change emissions should be expressed by
the areas of the countries taking into account
the emissions per ha or per square km. This would
prevent the analysis that compare emissions from
land use changes of small countries like Portugal
and Belgium to emissions of big countries like
Canada and Brazil.
22GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
- Thank you!
- www.ivig.coppe.ufrj.br