Seminrio internacional

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• Seminário internacional
• Equidade no período pós -Quioto
• PAINEL II
• Luiz Pinguelli Rosa - FBMC
• Local-FGV / SP
• Data-26 julho 2005

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• This presentation is based on a paper in press by
  the Journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy
  Reviews.
• The objective is to discuss the differences among
  the meaning of the GHG historical emissions in
  terms of development patterns.
• It suggests that different weights for different
  sectors should be taken into account.

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• For example, GHG emissions due to enteric
  fermentation from domestic livestock, are linked
  to different regional activities such as food
  production, cultural expression or even religion
  meaning, depending on the region analyzed.
• These differences should be considered.

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• Emissions due to fossil fuel sector represent in
  the majority a not feasible consumption pattern
  in terms of sustainable development.

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity.
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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• Historical emissions accountability is important
  
• to not ignore the physical laws that give rise to
  the environmental problem of global warming,
• to not give a retrospective licence to past
  emitters and,
• to not privilege those who lived in the past with
  the opportunity to benefit from emissions.

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• Responsibility presumes
• intent
• knowledge about the harmful consequences of ones
  behaviour.
• In the context of international diplomacy, an
  actor may be considered 'responsible'
• without (proof of) malicious intent,
• but not if he could not have known on the basis
  of the state of (scientific) knowledge at the
  time - that his behaviour was causing
  (substantial) damage

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• The relative contribution of emissions of CO2,
  between 1750 and 1900 to the total increased
  global average surface temperature in 2000 due to
  increased concentrations of CO2 is 3.5 only from
  fossil fuels and 10.3 from fossil plus forestry.
  (Hohne and Blok, 2002)
• But the relative contribution of UK fossil fuel
  CO2 emissions, between 1750 and 1900 to the UK
  increased global average surface temperature in
  1990 is about 20, and Germany is about 17.
  These values are significant for the burden
  sharing according to the historical
  responsibilities.
• The relative contribution of CO2 emissions due to
  fossil fuel, between 1750 and 1900 in 1990 (ten
  years before Hohne data) due to increased
  concentrations of CO2 is 3.8 but 35.6 from
  fossil fuels plus land use change (IVIGs
  historical emissions inventory).

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• Several uncertainties involve the climate system
  science
• It is necessary to acquire more confidence in the
  data and to go further in the researches to adopt
  a methodology and to discard others.
• Example of how one uncertainty can affect the
  results about responsibilities is "the additional
  radiative forcing due to additional
  concentrations of CO2 (TAR-IPCC, 2001)-
• At 300 ppmv CO2 concentration, an additional ppmv
  causes 0.018 W/m2 radiative forcing, while at
  twice the concentration,
• At 600 ppmv, the effect of an additional ppmv is
  only 0.009 W/m2, which is half of the effect."
• It means that "early emissions" result in a
  bigger effect than "late emissions, increasing
  the 1750-1900 contribution to the present.

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• Criteria used for some Equity Principles
  (Ringius, Torvanger and Underdal, 2002)
• "responsibility",
• "need",
• "capacity".
• Operational requirements
• "universal applicability",
• "easy to make operational',
• "simplicity",
• "allows to future refinements",
• "allows for flexibility" and
• "allows for country-specific circumstances".
• Brazilian Proposal was considered the best in
  terms of Fairness but the most weak in terms of
  operational requirements.

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• The notion of the responsibility of all in
  global climate change issues can result in
  maintaining the same level of consumption as
  everything depends on everything else,
  producing the idea that nothing can be done, and
  that the best solution is the fastest.
• Consequently, instead of encouraging effective
  responsibility among people, palliative solutions
  appear.
• Economic benefits are generated for some groups,
  with no commitment to structural changes in
  society, favouring very short-term market
  solutions (Muylaert, Cohen, Rosa and Pereira,
  2002).

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• On the topic of global climate and the respective
  international talks, the idea of responsibility
  is fundamental in order to deal with the vast
  past and present development gaps among the
  developed and developing countries and to avoid
  the perpetuation of the current gases emissions
  levels and consequently the continuation of
  current lifestyles.

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IVIGs database structure
GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity
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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• 1700, 1750, 1800, 1850, 1900, 1950, 1970, 1990

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• Our study proposes to differentiate the meaning
  of the different gases along the historical
  emissions and according to the sectors.
• For that, it could be given different weights to
  the GHGs depending on their sources of emissions.

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• Although a tCeq is not different for the global
  warming, it can be associated to different
  consumptions patterns. (Anil Aggarwall ,1991)

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• For example, CH4 emissions from domestic
  livestock should be less weighted than N2O
  emissions from industrial processes and also less
  weighted than CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• Land use change emissions should be expressed by
  the areas of the countries taking into account
  the emissions per ha or per square km. This would
  prevent the analysis that compare emissions from
  land use changes of small countries like Portugal
  and Belgium to emissions of big countries like
  Canada and Brazil.

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GHG Historical contribution by sectors,
Sustainable Development and Equity

• Thank you!
• www.ivig.coppe.ufrj.br