Is Indonesia Vulnerable to Conflict

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Is Indonesia Vulnerable to Conflict? An Assessment
Satish Mishra
July 2008
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• Is Indonesia Vulnerable to Conflict? An
  Assessment
• A review of past conflicts in Indonesia presents
  a mixed picture. Indonesia is a country with a
  long history of conflicts, arising from a large
  number of diverse influences demography, natural
  resource endowments, military rule, natural
  disasters and globally transmitted economic and
  political shocks
• On the other hand for a country in such rapid
  economic and political transformation the level
  and frequency of conflict is less than what has
  occurred in similar circumstances elsewhere.
• The discussion in this paper shows a very
  complicated picture with respect to conflict in
  Indonesia

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• Problems of definition and measurement
• Problems of definition involved in answering the
  question as to whether Indonesia is vulnerable to
  conflict are thus rather serious
• There is as yet no universally accepted approach
  to the definition problem and most observers and
  governments tend to adopt a pragmatic approach to
  the definition of conflict based
• Problems of definition and measurement biases
  make an accurate estimation of the scale,
  incidence, frequency and severity of conflict in
  any given situation or country very difficult.

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• Results of statistical surveys and studies
• Violent conflict in Indonesia as in many other
  countries is localized in a few districts and
  provinces. (93.5 of all reported deaths,
  1990-2003, took place in 15 districts/6.5 of the
  total population.
• Violent conflict rose sharply in the early years
  of the democratic transition
• The largest category of violent conflict is
  ethnic and communal or both. (14 provinces
  reported in the UNSFIR data base it accounted for
  almost 89.3 of total deaths)
• The rise in conflict during early years of
  democracy is reflected in the displacement of
  close to 1.3 million people
• Limited impact of traditional conflict resolution
  mechanisms at the village level. Local conflicts
  tend to be solved by formal village
  administrations or by the security apparatus
  itself

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• The geography and typology of conflict in
  Indonesia
• Virtually no significant part of the Indonesian
  archipelago has been free from violent conflict
  in the post-Independence period
• Separatism has been generally linked to the sense
  of unfairness associated with enclave oriented
  natural commodity exploitation
• Where the population distribution gave rise to
  relatively large share of non-Islamic
  communities, religious and cultural differences
  were compounded by a historical colonial policy
  of divide and rule by which Christians were
  favored over Muslims
• Almost all the conflicts are rooted in the
  perception of an unfair distribution of income
  and resources

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• Implications of international case studies
• Conflict Trap violent conflicts tend to repeat
  themselves
• Demographic factors risks of rebellion increase
  substantially if the largest ethnic group has
  absolute majority
• Economic literature on the characteristics and
  determinants of conflict focuses on two key
  factors (economic enclaves built around a given
  natural commodity industry and the presence of
  horizontal inequalities)
• Political literature, the tendency of conflict in
  times of transition between one political system
  and another.
• Sudden Economic Crises

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• The uncertain future
• Sustained economic recovery in the real sector
  does not by itself guarantee a noticeable
  reduction in unemployment levels
• The possibility that economic recovery will be
  accompanied by a worsening distribution of assets
  and income
• Natural resource led growth is likely to be the
  realistic policy option for Indonesia for some
  time to come
• the uneven impact of environmental degradation
  across different regions of Indonesia
• There is the persistent threat from externally
  economic shocks.
• The threat of global terrorism
• There is the question of post conflict
  sustainability in areas where peace has returned
  under unusual circumstances

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• Some reasons for optimism
• Statistical and non-quantitative studies of
  conflict in Indonesia illustrate the complicated
  picture with respect to conflict in Indonesia
• What is remarkable about the Indonesian story is
  that many nightmare scenarios experienced by
  other countries in similar situations failed to
  materialize
• Its election and communal violence did not match
  the severity and the relentlessness of such
  violence in other democratic countries, for
  instance India
• So the more difficult question facing the
  observer of violent conflict is why there was so
  little and general lawlessness which are the
  dominant characteristics of failed states

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• Reducing Indonesias vulnerability to future
  conflict A future policy agenda
• much can be done to reduce violent conflicts
  frequency, scale and adverse impact in Indonesia
• The required policy actions however cover a wide
  spectrum from broad strategic moves such as the
  consolidation of democratic institutions and the
  reform of the security sector, to the improvement
  of early warning on international crime and
  terrorism, to the critical task of building
  institutional and technical capacity to respond
  to repeated conflicts

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• Essential elements of a conflict prevention and
  mitigation program in Indonesia
• Political and governance dimensions
• The reform of the policy making process within
  government is the most obvious gap in the
  construction of the new democracy
• An overall reform of the security sector
• A review of the decentralization experience
• An independent review and strategic plan to
  support the growth and effectiveness of civil
  society
• Creation of a highly trained, non-political civil
  service
• Preventing the growth of extremist political and
  social organizations

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• Planning and programming
• Long term strategic plans for persistent conflict
  areas dimensions
• Establishing mechanisms to control terrorism and
  similar threats
• Economic policy dimensions
• Ensuring a fair distribution of future economic
  growth

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• Public communication and participation dimensions
  
• Promoting public participation in policy making
• Creating an institutional capacity for sustained
  response to conflicts

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THANK YOU