ONZEKERHEID

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Session 14.3 Panel on Scaling in Integrated
Assessment
Kasper Kok
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Background
Rotmans, J Rothman, D.S. (Eds.). 2003. Scaling
in Integrated Assessment. Swets Zeitlinger
B.V., Lisse, the Netherlands. Based on an
International Workshop Scaling Issues in
Integrated Assessment 12-19 July 2000, Mechelen,
the Netherlands Organised by the International
Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS) Sponsored
by the European Forum on Integrated Environmental
Assessment (EIFEA) Second of so-called Matrix
workshops addressed specific methodological
topics relevant to IA.
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Scale and Integrated Assessment

• Scale is at the heart of IA because
• IA addresses complex issues
• IA involves a large range of scales (climate
  change!)
• IA is multidisciplinary, including policy makers

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SCENE model
Society
Institutional
Environment
Economy
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Some definitions
Level Level of organization inherent to the
system Also referred to as functional
scale Scale Level of observation With two
components,temporal and spatial scale that both
have two aspects, resolution and extent
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Functional scale or hierarchically nested levels
Slow, large
1 0 -1
Focal level
Fast, small
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Examples of functional scales
Log time (years)
Landscape
Forest
Stand
century
Tree
decade
Crown
year
months
Branch
Leaf
days
cm m 100m
100km
Log space (meters)
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Spatial scale
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(Spatial) scale effect
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Scale and geography
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Correlation coffee and forest
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spatial resolution
-
-1
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Scale in Social Sciences
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Avoid confusion
Microeconomists definition of
scale Increasing return to scale is an increase
of inputs that results in a more than
proportional increase of outputs. Macroeconomy
versus microeconomy
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Driving forces of LUCC
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Integration?
individual village country
watersheds AEZ
household country
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Scaling in Integrated Assessment
Problems Why does scale matter? --
Wilbanks Scale in social sciences --
Evans Scale in economics -- Jaeger, Van der
Veen Solutions Strategic Cyclical Scaling --
Root and Schneider The Syndrome Approach --
Schellnhuber, Petschel-Held ABMS and
participation -- Pahl-Wostl Integration Emergen
t properties -- Easterling Hierachy Theory and
Holons -- Giampietro Transition (management) --
Rotmans Other Multi-scale scenarios -- Kok